Syrian Arab Republic: GOAL Syria - Bakery Research & Evaluation Consultancy

GOAL launched a humanitarian program in Northern Syria in October 2012. The objective of the GOAL Syria response is to provide emergency support to vulnerable families displaced or affected within Syria by the conflict, via the distribution of cash, vouchers, food kits, and non-food items, and support to water delivery, solid waste removal, and bread production systems.

GOAL is addressing increasing food insecurity and rising flour, fuel and bread prices in Idleb Province by providing flour, as well as yeast and plastic bags to bakeries. This distribution is meant to support the local bread production by matching the existing production capacities of the bakeries.

This proposed research is intended to further inform GOAL Syria’s bakeries project strategy. In particular this research will inform the operation of bakeries programming to direct the greatest impact towards vulnerable populations and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the bakeries project.

GOAL is interested in understanding the full range of impacts, both positive and negative, that its bakeries project has on the local population so that it can refine its approach to deliver the most effective and appropriate aid within the scope of the project.The strategic objective of the project is “*increased food security among conflicted affected communities in Idleb and Hama Governorates, northern Syria*.” This would be achieved if “*access to, and availability of bread amongst vulnerable IDP and host populations increased*” through the provision of flour to bakeries. The primary mechanisms for this result is that an increased supply of flour would result in increased production of bread, availability in the market, and low, stable and controlled prices for bread.

For full details please refer to the Terms of Reference below

Evaluation of the Impact of GOAL’s Support to Bakeries in Syria on Vulnerable Populations

Terms of Reference

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Four years of conflict have incrementally impacted people in Syria in all facets of life; the United Nations estimates that over 7.6 million people have been internally displaced and a further 3.2 million have fled to neighboring countries as refugees.[1] Unabated insecurity and the continued degradation of households’ ability to cope have deepened the humanitarian impact of the crisis, with over 12.2 million people estimated to be in need of assistance.

Rising bread prices and decreased production of bread, a critical staple in the Syrian diet that is eaten with nearly every meal, have contributed to food insecurity and to the many hardships faced by conflict-affected people. Before the conflict, bread prices were subsidized by the government and set at 15 SYP/kg of bread.^[2] In September 2014, the MSNA found that prices of unsubsidized bread have risen to a median of 106 SYP/kg, a rise of over 700%.[3] However, bakeries supported by GOAL and partners through FFP funding in Idlib and northern Hama have managed to sell bread for 60 SYP/1400 grams, or at a comparable price of 43 SYP/kg (as of December 2014). With fuel and flour prices continuing to rise, GOAL’s team has been approached by Local Councils, bakeries, and beneficiaries to continue and to scale up its ongoing support to bakeries.

1.2 GOAL’s Programs

GOAL launched a humanitarian program in Northern Syria in October 2012, and established a coordinating office in Antakya, Turkey with a sub-office in Harem, Syria. The objective of the GOAL Syria response is to provide emergency support to vulnerable families displaced or affected within Syria by the conflict, via the distribution of cash, vouchers, food kits, and non-food items, and support to water delivery, solid waste removal, and bread production systems.

GOAL is addressing increasing food insecurity and rising flour, fuel and bread prices in Idleb Province by providing 2,145 metric tons of flour, as well as yeast and plastic bags, monthly to 5 industrial bakeries and 41 private bakeries. This distribution is meant to support 50% of the local bread production by matching the existing production capacities of the bakeries.

This proposed research is intended to further inform GOAL Syria’s bakeries project strategy funded by USAID’s Food for Peace program. In particular this research will inform the operation of bakeries programming to direct the greatest impact towards vulnerable populations and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the bakeries project.

2. Definitions and Scope

2.1 Bakeries Project Objectives

GOAL is interested in understanding the full range of impacts, both positive and negative, that its bakeries project has on the local population so that it can refine its approach to deliver the most effective and appropriate aid within the scope of the project.

The strategic objective of the project is “*increased food security among conflicted affected communities in Idleb and Hama Governorates, northern Syria*.” This would be achieved if “*access to, and availability of bread amongst vulnerable IDP and host populations increased*” through the provision of flour to bakeries. The primary mechanisms for this result is that an increased supply of flour would result in increased production of bread, availability in the market, and low, stable and controlled prices for bread.

As part of the project strategy, these objectives are measured through the following indicators:

· Average Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS)

· % increase in HHs who report they had sufficient food for their needs in the last week

· % of HH's who report utilising negative coping strategies (such as selling assets for food, running into debt, etc.)

· # tons of flour distributed to bakeries

· # kg yeast provided to bakeries via the project

· # of bags of bread distributed

· # of people with improved access to bread offered at a stable price (bakery catchment area)

· % population in targeted areas reporting that bread prices are stable

· # of bags of bread sold at stable price

· % of targeted bakeries reporting that bread production capacity has increased from project start

2.2 Research Project Purpose

The purpose of this research project is two-fold:

· to provide a deeper understanding and quantification of the impact this project has on various stakeholders

· to assess how well the project addresses the needs of the most vulnerable people, providing information to improve program design.

2.3 Research Project Scope

The research project should be organized around OECD evaluation criteria as follows, with suggested research questions provided.

Relevance:Is this particular modality an appropriate way to address food security among the most vulnerable populations? Who purchases the bread? Does the project reach the intended beneficiaries?

Effectiveness: Does the project increase bread availability? Does the project stabilize bread prices? How does the project affect the price of other non-GOAL bakeries? How does the project impact Household Dietary Diversity, household food sufficiency, and coping strategies?

Impact: What are the primary impact mechanisms on vulnerable households, such as savings on food expenses, higher quality food purchases, or higher quantity food purchases? If there are household the savings, how are they used? What is the impact on other stakeholders?

Efficiency: Is the modality a cost-effective way of increasing food security? How much of the benefit of the project is captured by various stakeholders including bakery owners and vulnerable households?

Sustainability:To what degree has this intervention strengthened, promoted or protected existing market structures across the market system?How effectively is the quantity of bread in the market stabilized? Do bakeries have sufficient profit margins to make repairs and improvements?

2.4 Research Project Tasks

1. Refine the research objectives and primary research questions in consultation with GOAL Syria’s technical and management teams.
2. Devise and test a methodology and research tools to quantify and describe the extent and mechanisms of the project’s impact on various stakeholders, vulnerable households.
3. Conduct secondary data collection and research, including using GOAL’s existing project monitoring data, to identify gaps in data coverage and knowledge.
4. Collect primary data in Syria to establish and quantify the economic and food security impact on key stakeholders, including vulnerable households according to the finalized research objectives and questions
5. Provide a draft report to programme management that will be incorporated into ongoing programme planning and evaluation, as well as recommendations for maximizing social impact.
6. Incorporate GOAL feedback into draft report and prepare a final report. The Final report should both describe the results of the research, provide actionable recommendations for improving the bakeries project, and offer potential complementary modalities or key considerations for the future of GOAL’s food security and livelihoods programming focused on the strategic objective “*increased food security among conflicted affected communities in Idleb and Hama Governorates, northern Syria*.”
7. Methodology

A recommended methodology is outlined below, but the final methodology and tools to be used is to be determined by the evaluation team and will be contingent on the above tasks. The evaluation team should consist of one to two Team Leaders. Access to Syria is likely to be impossible for an international consultant, so a Training-of-Trainers (ToT), or if possible, a Syrian counterpart is required for international applicants. Preference will be given to International Team Leaders who speak Arabic, and those with experience of the Syrian response.

3.1 Planning

Before arriving in country the evaluation team will do the following:

§ Review key internal and external documents

§ In partnership with the GOAL Syria MEAL Coordinator and FSL team, refine and finalize the specific research questions to be explored from the scope described above.

§ Propose to the MEAL Coordinator and the FSL team the appropriate methodology to be developed for the Syrian context to determine the extent and mechanisms of the project’s impact on various stakeholders including vulnerable households.

§ Prepare an outline of the data collection methods that are required and the relevant survey templates and participatory data collection guides to be used for data collection

§ Develop a work plan consisting of key milestones required for data collection in order for logistics to be arranged by the MEAL Coordinator

On arrival in country the evaluation team will:

§ Hold a short planning meeting with all members of the evaluation team including the MEAL Coordinator and FSL team, to review and amend the questions as needed for the data collection tool

§ Liaise with the MEAL Coordinator and MEAL Field Manager on the training and recruitment of the data collection staff and the use of mobile data collection for the proposed survey tools and qualitative guides, as primary data collection will be required for the study.

§ Hold a brief workshop with the SMT to communicate evaluation methods, objectives, and outcomes. This will include a short description of the evaluation questions and methods proposed, and the implications the findings of the evaluation may have on GOAL Syria cash-based response programming.

Post-site visit

§ Data analysis, report development, and dissemination

3.2 Primary Data Collection

Areas of primary data collection in Syria will span across Idleb and be contingent on the type of market analysis chosen by the evaluator which will achieve the market assessment objectives. The geographic sample frame should be sufficiently large to allow for generalizable results through GOAL’s area of operation and to potentially inform beyond that area of operation. Depending on the market analysis conducted, the following stakeholders may include, but not limited to:

§ GOAL beneficiaries, with particular emphasis on vulnerable households

§ Bakery owners and staff

§ Bread distributers – both GOAL and non-GOAL

§ Other traders in the wheat value chain

§ LC members

Consultants are requested to include a full timeframe (which GOAL will then input with regard to travel days) within their proposal document in the following format:

Pending access issues, there is potential for a variety of methods. GOAL prefers a mixed-method approach including quantitative data, particularly regarding impact, and qualitative data to allow for causal analysis and deeper understanding of the effects of the program. GOAL has not covered all bakeries in its area of operation, and several bakeries have only recently ceased receiving government support allowing for the potential for quasi-experimental methods including matching. Most Significant Change methodology or other similar ranking and qualitative methodologies could help disentangle how beneficiaries utilize the reduced cost of bread.

ActivityNumber of days Person responsible Deliverables e.g. Training of Trainers 4 days Assistant Consultant Training documentation, improved capacity of data collection staff to collect data

4. Ethical Considerations

The Researcher will make clear to all participating stakeholders that they are under no obligation to participate in the evaluation study. All participants will be assured that there will be no negative consequences if they choose not to participate. Researcher/s will obtain informed consent from the participants. The research team will ensure prior permission is received for taking and use of visual still/ moving images for specific purposes, i.e., ‘for research report and presentations. Researcher/s will assure the participants’ anonymity and confidentiality and will ensure the visual data is protected and used for agreed purposes only. In particular, the research team will employ robust data security measures to further ensure participants’ confidentiality and anonymity. The researcher is responsible for determining whether or not their proposed methodology would require Institutional Review Board (IRB) clearance, and will be responsible for clearing the process and training if such approval is required.

5. Presentation and Documentation of Findings and Recommendations

The findings of the research must be shared with GOAL in the following formats:

§ Closing workshop in Antakya, Turkey with GOAL staff to present findings and get feedback

o For agreed immediate action points: formulation of action plan with deadlines and responsibilities

o Agreed recommendations that will inform GOAL strategy and opportunities to improve bakeries and food security and livelihoods programming, with an emphasis on equity

§ Draft Research Report submitted to MEAL Coordinator and FSL Coordinator for feedback and comments, two weeks after conclusion of field visit.

§ Final Research Report- The report must be clear and concise and the following sections must be included as a minimum: Executive Summary, Literature Review of Bakeries Responses, Methodology, Analysis of findings, Recommendations; Annexes: TORs, a timeline of the response, a list of individuals interviewed, statistical outputs, templates of data collection tools used, a description of the methods employed, a summary of survey results (if appropriate) and any other relevant materials. A shorter, external learning paper should also be developed, in coordination with the MEAL Coordinator after completion of the full report. The learning paper would include an overview of the context, GOAL’s voucher programming modalities and the key findings from the report, for sharing with external audiences.

Deliverable 1: Presentation of findings

Deliverable 2: Action Plan with deadlines

Deliverable 3: Final Evaluation Report

Deliverable 4: External-facing Learning Paper

6. Dissemination of Findings

Results and recommendations will be made available externally to all interested stakeholders, both in hard copy and electronically

7. Assumptions and Requirements

§ Evaluators will have access to all documentation and can take part in relevant meetings and field trips within Turkey.

§ Evaluators will have access to key staff in the responding GOAL offices in Syria and Turkey and partner offices to obtain adequate information provided.

§ The evaluation team will have access to members of the affected population for conducting interviews.

§ Evaluators will take confidentiality and objectivity into consideration during the process.

§ Security concerns could impact the timing and the scope of the evaluation. It is important for the team to remain flexible. They must be open to making changes to the schedule and itinerary such as visiting alternate sites, conducting remote reviews and interviews, etc.

§ GOAL will provide all transport within Turkey, and if security permits for a Syrian national, transportation to Syria.

8. Consultant Profile

For the purposes of this evaluator, two consultants are requested to work together and make a site visit to Antakya, Turkey. The profile of the lead international consultants is:

§ Individuals in academia (students or professionals) preferred, with an interest in this area of study

§ Master’s or doctoral degree either in development economics, agricultural economics, development studies, agronomy, or other related field

§ Experience of conducting evaluations (USAID and DFID desirable) ideally leading an evaluation team and experience of designing evaluation methodology / tools, data analysis etc.

§ Experience using appropriate market analysis tools

§ Experience of working in humanitarian contexts and good understanding of humanitarian response work – both in programmes and operations

§ In-depth knowledge of quantitative and qualitative research methods

§ Experience with mobile data collection

§ Competent in using statistical packages for quantitative and qualitative analyses

§ Excellent presentation and writing skills

§ Capacity to work collaboratively with multiple stakeholders

§ Excellent analytical and writing in English and Arabic (preferred)

It is strongly preferred that one of the consultants who will be visiting Turkey will additionally have strong experience organizing and conducting Training of Trainers.

1 Offer Checklist

BEFORE SUBMITTING THIS OFFER PLEASE ENSURE

1. A print out of this advert has been signed acknowledging acceptance of GOALs Terms and Conditions as outlined below
2. A detailed proposal is attached including:
3. Up to three relevant examples of past assessments or research completed
4. CV’s for relevant staff
5. Technical proposal including detailed tasks, recommended methodology summary and proposed schedule, your relevant experience, how you meet the profile required and details of time required (maximum 8 pages)
6. a proposed schedule and details of time required;
7. any other relevant requirements/support needs;
8. Detailed, itemized cost proposal, including daily fee and any other associated costs (GOAL will provide accommodation)

2. Timetable

Advertisement: 11^thJune 2015

Deadline for Reply: 25^thJune 2015

3 ABOUT GOAL:

For further information about GOAL please visit www.goal.ie

4 INSTRUCTION TO BIDDERS

By submitting your Offer, the Bidder accepts in full the conditions of this RFO, waiving his/her own conditions of sale.

Please read all instructions, terms and conditions carefully, and ensure your information and documentation is provided on time as failure to do so may result in rejection of your bid.

If clarification is required on this tender please send your query to tenders-syria@sy.goal.ie with a copy to GOAL’s Logistics Coordinator, Steve McEneaney: smceneaney@sy.goal.ie and GOAL M&E Coordinator Joseph Witiw jwitiw@sy.goal.ie Please include the reference number and words “clarification required” in the subject line. Direct contact with any other GOAL staff member, before opening date, will result in the Immediate Disqualification of The Submitted Tender.

5 SUBMISSION OF OFFERS

Offers must be delivered in one of the following ways:

1. In a sealed envelope to the following address:

GOAL Turkey, Antakya office, Ataturk Street, Kanatlı District No: 134 Floor: 5, Apt 8. Antakya Hatay,

Your proposal, in original, should be sealed in an envelope addressed as follows:

Request for Offer for GOAL SYRIA

GOAL Reference G-SY-ANT-BK-11272-2015

2. By email to the following address:

tenders-syria@sy.goal.ie

The subject line and email body should reference the following:

Request for Offer for GOAL SYRIA

GOAL Reference G-SY-ANT-BK-11272-2015

If submitting by e-mail, please include scanned signed copies of your bid along with scans of all the required documentation

The consultancy will not start before 16 July 2015

The final approved report for the consultancy should be 30 September 2015

Important: Offers transmitted in any other manner than those indicated above or offers received after the deadline date and time will not be considered.

6 SELECTION CRITERIA

When analyzing the Offers, the following are requirements for GOAL:

· Known reliability in delivery of timely and quality services

· Relevant field/country experience

· Relevant sector specific technical experience & qualifications

· Relevant evaluation experience

· Presentation and writing skills evident from the proposal

· Demonstrated understanding of the work proposed in the TOR (ANNEX 1)

· Detailed methodology proposed

· 2 Professional References,

· Cost/budget

7 INFORMATION REQUIRED

7.1 DOCUMENTATION REQUIRED

Please ensure you have included all documentation outlined in the checklist in section 1

7.2 SPECIFICATION OF SERVICES

Please give full details of the services being offered, including all information required in the Annexes.If your response deviates from GOAL’s required specifications in this RFO and associated documents please include full details of the deviations.

GOAL requires individuals / your company to provide accurate and true information in both your quote and any other information provided verbally or through email throughout the process of RFO submissions and clarifications. All information provided to GOAL as part of this RFO process should be accurate. Providing false information may lead to your exclusion from the process.

7.3 PRICING:

1. Prices must be expressed in Turkish Lira (TRY) or US Dollars (USD). Please, note that GOAL Standard Monthly Financial Rate will be used for analyzing offers submitted in any other currency.
2. Any discount offered to GOAL must be clearly indicated as a percentage of the overall cost.

7.4 PAYMENT TERMS

1. Payment will be made to the vendor by bank transfer within 30 days from receipt by GOAL of all reports mentioned in the contract according to the agreed schedule.

8 CONDITIONS OF TENDER/RFO

1. GOAL reserves the right to deal with any Offer of its choice or any or all parts of the Offer and to purchase services from various Offers. GOAL is not bound to accept the lowest Offer, or any Offer.
2. This document is not a contract or an Offer into a contract, but is a request for a quotation for the services indicated
3. GOAL does not undertake to pay by letter of credit or in advance of delivery.
4. Respondents are bound by their Offer for a period of 180 days as from the closing date of bids. If the validity of your offer is less than 180 days, or more than 180 days timeframe, please, clearly indicate same in your offer
5. GOAL is in no way responsible for any costs associated with preparing the RFO response.
6. GOAL reserves the right to alter the dates of the timetable.
7. GOAL will inform each respondent to the results of the decision on their Offer; this process is not open to the public. GOAL is not obliged to justify or explain selection to any respondent.
8. Any queries about this RFO should be addressed in writing to GOAL via email as detailed above
9. Any contract that results from this tender will be subject to GOALs standard Terms and Conditions (**Annex 2)**.

9 BIDDER’S SIGNATURE.

I have read and understood this document:

Signed:

****Date:****

Name:

Position:

Organization: